Nov. 10, 2022, More than 200,000 Georgia voters cast ballots for Brian Kemp, Republican candidate for governor, but did not vote for Herschel Walker in the Senate race. Tonight, our election forecast will show live estimates for which party is favored to win control in the Senate and House. Hawaii Government Employees Association (HGEA), Hawaii State American Federation of Labor & Congress of Industrial Organizations, International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers Locals 1186, 1260 and 1357, International Longshore and Warehouse Union Local 142, University of Hawaii Professional Assembly (UHPA), Daniel H. Cunningham, independent candidate for governor in, Sherry Menor-McNamara, president and CEO of, Sam Puletasi, candidate for lieutenant governor in. The New York Timess results team is a group of graphics editors, engineers and reporters who build and maintain software to publish election results in real-time as they are reported by results providers. Hawaii held an election for governor and lieutenant governor on November 8, 2022. Only 2% of voters did not recognize Greens name, the lowest of all of the gubernatorial candidates. David Ige, a Democrat who cannot run for re-election because of term limits. These numbers are a good sign.. Election. #HIGov #Hileg", "Kauai Mayor Derek Kawakami endorses Kirk Caldwell in governor's race", "U.S. Rep. Kai Kahele gets key union backing, Lt. Gov. Kathy Hochul claimed victory late Tuesday against Representative Lee Zeldin, a conservative Republican. Greens theoretical vote tally dipped from 58% in January to 55% in July. All rights reserved. votes. This goes back to polling place elections when typically schools were used as polling places and would be available on Election Day, Ms. Bueno said. Our state is at a pivotal point in its history, change is in the wind, and this is an important opportunity to direct our state toward a more resilient future, Caldwell said in a statement. She is expected to win easily in November against Joe Akana, the winner of the Republican primary, for the seat being vacated by Representative Kai Kahele, a Democrat who opted to run for governor but lost. While the three majority-Hispanic counties Hendry, Miami-Dade and Osceola shifted the most, Latino turnout tends to drop more in the midterms compared with other groups. The question was put to 320 likely Democratic primary voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.6 percentage points. David Ige, a Democrat who cannot run for re-election because of term limits. The state has two Senators, Mr. Schatz and Mazie K. Hirono. David Ige. Maggie Astor Gov. Josh Green, the leading candidate so far to become Hawaiis next governor, has a commanding 65% overall approval rating among Hawaii voters and an even more impressive 70% approval for his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, the Honolulu Star-Advertiser Hawaii Poll shows. Republicans need to flip only one seat to gain control of the Senate, while Democrats need to keep 50 seats to maintain control. All registered Hawaii voters are sent a mail ballot. Green also has commanding leads in terms of fundraising and political endorsements. The Hawaii Poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy of Washington, D.C., from July 12 to 17. David Ige. Hes the most popular politician in Hawaii, thats for sure. The Congressional Progressive Caucus endorsed her in June, saying in a statement at the time, In Hawaii, Jill has led on affordable housing, education, womens reproductive freedom and gun violence prevention, and shell do the same in Congress.. Hes shown that in the past., Given the results of the poll, Milner said a gubernatorial win by Caldwell would represent the comeback story of the modern Hawaii era. Heres where we think votes remain. This was one of 36 gubernatorial elections that took place place in 2022. The Hawaii Poll was released just after Green and fellow Democratic gubernatorial candidates Vicky Cayetano and former Honolulu Mayor Kirk Caldwell reported their latest fundraising figures. , Brad Raffensperger, Republican, is re-elected as Georgias secretary of state. Nov. 9, 2022, Maryland and Missouri voted to legalize recreational marijuana for people 21 and older, while voters in Arkansas, North Dakota and South Dakota rejected similar measures. A lot of nations, especially advanced democracies, let voters go to the polls on weekends, when voting doesnt have to compete with work schedules. Ron DeSantis winning the early vote in Miami-Dade County which voted for Hillary Clinton by +29 points just six years ago is yet another sign of growing Republican strength among Hispanic voters. Theres still a long way to go before the Aug. 13 primary and even longer to the Nov. 8 general election and anything could happen. I would definitely say Josh Green, Briscoe said. GOP Rep. David Rouzer is coasting to reelection. While 79% of Democrats say they approve of Greens overall performance, so do 52% of Republicans and 57% of independent poll participants. that guide every prediction he makes. , Katie Hobbs, an election official who stood up to allies of Donald Trump, beat his Republican pick for Arizonas governor, Kari Lake. Historically, the selection of Saturday also helped the state find places to hold elections, according to Nedielyn Bueno, a voter service specialist with the Office of Elections. One of Mr. Greens campaign ads this year highlighted the fact that Hawaiis Covid infection rates have been among the lowest in the country, though they have still been devastating, particularly in Native Hawaiian communities. Representative Tom Malinowski, a second-term incumbent, conceded his race for re-election to his Republican opponent, Tom Kean Jr. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(e){if(void 0!==e.data["datawrapper-height"]){var t=document.querySelectorAll("iframe");for(var a in e.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r> RELATED: Undecided votes critical in tight race for lieutenant governor, >> RELATED: Hawaii Poll reveals isle voters attitudes toward Ige, Blangiardi. Already a subscriber? Mr. Branco and his supporters argue that Ms. Tokuda cannot be trusted because she was endorsed by the National Rifle Association in 2012, although she supported gun restrictions in the State Senate after that and has called for a federal assault weapons ban and a minimum age of 21 for gun purchases. Mr. Tataii has not filed any campaign paperwork with the Federal Election Commission, nor had he spent any money on advertisements as of Aug. 11, according to the ad analytics firm AdImpact. , George Santos, Republican, wins U.S. House seat to represent New Yorks Third Congressional District. Telephone: 808-529-4747. endorsement, pro-Branco ads attacked Ms. Tokuda for opposing a 2015 bill that would have banned pesticide spraying around Hawaii schools. In an email statement to the Star-Advertiser, Aiona wrote: I am humbled by the results of the Star-Advertiser Poll. Ms. Cayetano a businesswoman who co-founded Hawaiis largest laundry services company and whose husband, Ben Cayetano, was governor from 1994 to 2002 campaigned on creating a state-funded pipeline for renters to earn ownership of their homes, and on eliminating state income taxes for people earning less than $50,000. In the counties where most of the vote is in, Senator Ron Johnson is running ahead of Trump. How he presents himself in the campaign is important, but people already like him. Hes outperforming Biden across the state and is currently up 8 points in counties that were the closest in 2020. Stacey Abrams has conceded to Brian Kemp, the Republican governor of Georgia. Pollsters that did not release any horse-race polls within three weeks of an election since 1998 do not have a grade and are treated as a C+ by the grade filter. The 2022 Hawaii gubernatorial election took place on November 8, 2022, to elect the next governor of Hawaii. Among those 18 to 49 years old, some 38% said they would vote for him. , David Schweikert, Republican, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Arizonas First Congressional District. Democrats will gain a seat in the new Congress, retaining the power to advance the presidents agenda and his judicial and cabinet picks. , Tina Kotek, a Democrat, fended off two well-funded challengers in the race for governor of Oregon. This is going to be very challenging, based on what these poll results show.. Challenging Mr. Schatz in the primary is Steve Tataii, a conflict-resolution consultant who ran unsuccessfully for the U.S. House in 1992, 2002 and 2008. Nov. 8, 2022, Its still early in Wisconsin, but it looks close. Green reported $1,125,877 in cash on hand as of Dec. 31. Our average includes all candidates that. An updating average, accounting for each poll's quality, recency, sample size and partisan lean. Read more Four counties all of which supported Trump in 2020 voted for Shapiro but chose Dr. Oz, the Republican, for the Senate. Lazaro Gamio Nov. 8, 2022 When polls close Outside groups supporting Mr. Branco ran attack ads condemning Ms. Tokuda over her 2012 endorsement from the National Rifle Association, though she subsequently supported gun control measures in the State Senate. To retain control of the House, Democrats must win 46 of these seats (after accounting for the races the parties are expected to win most easily). The biggest topic of discussion in the campaign has been how to address the states housing crisis, which was exacerbated by wealthy remote workers moving from the mainland during the pandemic and has hit Native Hawaiians especially hard. Virginias Seventh District is one of three races in the state that could offer an early sign of whether the Democrats can retain control of the House. Taking control of the governorship and both legislative chambers in these states could ease Democrats ability to pass legislation on an array of issues. Pennsylvanias Senate race now leans Democratic, according to our estimates. He had previously served as chairman of the states Democratic Party and from 1996 to 2002, he represented parts of Oahu, where he grew up, as a state lawmaker. These mirages show that vote margins early in the night can change significantly. See election results, maps, county-by-county vote counts and more for Hawaii's races on Aug. 13, 2022. . Maura Healey, the newly elected Democratic governor of Massachusetts is the first openly lesbian woman to be elected governor in the United States. In this solidly blue state, the Democratic primaries are likely to determine the November winners. Greens dominance includes majority support from every county, ethnic group and even 52% overall support from Republicans, according to the poll. Next. Guam and the Virgin Islands two territories that elect nonvoting delegates to Washington have also traditionally held their primary elections on Saturdays. Organizations are considered partisan if they operate on behalf of a candidate, party, campaign committee, PAC, super PAC, hybrid PAC, 501(c)(4), 501(c)(5) or 501(c)(6) organization that conducts a large majority of its political activity on behalf of one political party. The race for North Carolinas open Senate seat is leaning toward Representative Ted Budd, a Republican, according to our estimates. There's a crowded Republican field, too, which includes former Lt. Gov. As any entrepreneur knows, it takes a lot of time and energy to start a new venture, whether it is a business or a campaign. Democratic Rep. Andy Kim is facing a self-funding GOP opponent and getting some outside help in the closing week of the campaign. In America, where most states administer elections on Tuesdays, Hawaii is an outlier but its unusual primary elections calendar is no accident. Indicates a polling average for this poll type. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. ( NewsNation) Hawaii voters head to the polls Tuesday to cast their ballots in some important races in the 2022 midterm elections. Mail ballots are due by the close of polls on August 13. Green won the election with 63.2% of the vote with Aiona receiving 36.8% of the vote.[1][2]. Read more. . In these midterms, New York is an unexpected battleground. The leading candidates in the Democratic primary the main attraction given the districts partisan tilt are Jill Tokuda, a former state senator, and Patrick Branco, a state representative. A total of 800 registered Hawaii voters were interviewed statewide by landline telephone and cell phones. I cant recall anyone having numbers this high, said Colin Moore, director of the University of Hawaiis Public Policy Center. Maggie Astor There is also an unexpectedly competitive Senate race in Utah between Senator Mike Lee, a Republican, and Evan McMullin, an independent. More than a million dollars in spending by such groups gave Mr. Branco a financial advantage, even though Ms. Tokudas campaign raised more than three times as much as his in the most recent fiscal quarter, according to Federal Election Commission filings. Kahele, who is from Hawaii County, saw his strongest support on Kauai. Our newest ratings and updates, Alicia Parlapiano Republicans would need just two tossup seats beyond what they are favored to win. Mandela Barnes, delivering a critical victory for Republicans. Our average includes all candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers major. Candidates with insufficient polling data are not displayed in the averages. As of Aug. 10, 234,000 ballots had already been returned, according to the Office of Elections. RealClearPolitics - Election 2022 - Hawaii Governor - Republican Primary Notice any bugs or missing polls? Get live estimates for Senate and House control with our real-time election forecast, which analyzes the results so far to show who is on track to win. As you know, there is a not a short list of incidences that hes been involved in that are legally of concern, Blair said. Democrats launched a late ad campaign hitting Republican Eric Aadland, who is seeking to become first alphabetically in congressional history by last name. , Frank J. Mrvan, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Indianas First Congressional District. This marked the third time Aiona had been the Republican gubernatorial nominee, having previously run unsuccessfully in 2010 and 2014. That compares with $475,274 for Cayetano, whose contributions included a $350,000 loan she gave to her campaign. All rights reserved. , Eric Sorensen, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Illinoiss 17th Congressional District. Hawaii Lieutenant Governor Primary Election Results. Mandela Barnes, and there is a close contest for governor. In a statement to the Star- Advertiser, Penn said: We have tremendous confidence in the people of Hawaii. Civil Beat Politics and Opinion Editor Chad Blair said if Penn wins the nomination, his criminal record will be questioned. Lazaro Gamio Mr. Green defeated six other Democrats, including Representative Kai Kahele and Vicky Cayetano, a former first lady of Hawaii. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, a Democrat, won a tough re-election race against her Republican rival, Tudor Dixon. In Floridas closely watched governors race, Gov. Colorados Third District is leaning toward Lauren Boebert, an ardent supporter of Donald Trump, according to our estimates. Lazaro Gamio His approval ratings are much wider, but still dominant, among ethnic groups: 77% from Japanese; 71% from Hawaiians; 62% from Mixed/Other; and 58% from whites. We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. Among them: Pennsylvania, Michigan and Texas. Christine Zhang Hawaii amended its law in 2010, moving Primary Day to August from September in order to comply with a federal law mandating that members of the military receive ballots at least 45 days before federal elections. It included 800 registered Hawaii voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter registration by county. Josh Green, Hawaiis second-in-command, wins the Democratic primary for governor. Senator Brian Schatz has also served as Hawaiis lieutenant governor and held other offices. New York's 26th District. RealClearPolitics - Election 2022 - Hawaii Governor - Democratic Primary We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. Behind every great man is a great woman.. 500 Ala Moana Blvd. Reporting by Grace Ashford, Maggie Astor, Michael C. Bender, Sarah Borell, Sarah Cahalan, Emily Cochrane, Nick Corasaniti, Jill Cowan, Catie Edmondson, Reid J. Epstein, Nicholas Fandos, Lalena Fisher, Trip Gabriel, Katie Glueck, J. David Goodman, Blake Hounshell, Shawn Hubler, Annie Karni, Maya King, Stephanie Lai, Lisa Lerer, Jonathan Martin, Patricia Mazzei, Alyce McFadden, Jennifer Medina, Azi Paybarah, Mitch Smith, Tracey Tully, Jazmine Ulloa, Neil Vigdor and Jonathan Weisman; production by Andy Chen, Amanda Cordero, Alex Garces, Chris Kahley, Laura Kaltman, Andrew Rodriguez and Jessica White; editing by Wilson Andrews, Kenan Davis, William P. Davis, Kennedy Elliott, Amy Hughes, Ben Koski, Allison McCartney and Karen Workman. Army veteran Lynn Mariano took in no contributions and had a negative balance of $176. Nov. 8, 2022, Six of the eight most competitive Senate races are in states that did not call a winner in the presidential race until after election night: Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Josh Green would easily defeat his two main Democratic primary opponents. 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